The Unstoppable Force of Undersupply.
This interactive report for brokers explains why Australia's structural housing shortage is the primary driver of market resilience, overpowering high interest rates and reshaping client advisory.
The Market Paradox
Despite a restrictive cash rate, property values continue to climb, demonstrating a powerful underlying trend.
Expert Consensus: Continued Growth Ahead
This section provides an overview of projections from leading industry analysts. The consensus points to sustained price growth, driven by the fundamental imbalance of supply and demand. Use the interactive chart to explore and compare forecasts.
The 'Why': A Deep Dive into the Supply Crisis
Here we dissect the core issue: the National Housing Accord's ambitious goals versus the stark reality of delivery. The interactive visualization below breaks down the numbers to reveal a critical net supply deficit, explaining why the market's foundation is not just a floor, but an upward-moving escalator.
The National Housing Accord: By the Numbers
The government's goal is 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029. However, forecasts show a significant shortfall. The chart on the right visualizes this gap and, more critically, the net deficit after accounting for new demand and demolitions.
The Critical Net Deficit
Over the next 5 years, we are projected to build 0 fewer homes than needed just to meet new demand and replace demolished stock.
What This Means for Your Brokerage
This final section translates the market analysis into a practical playbook. Use these insights and talking points to reframe client conversations, manage expectations, and provide strategic advice grounded in long-term market fundamentals.
Reframe the Conversation
Shift clients from the flawed strategy of 'market timing' to the productive assessment of 'personal timing'. The key questions are about their financial readiness, not market speculation.
- ✓Is the deposit ready?
- ✓Is income secure & serviceability strong?
- ✓Does this align with long-term goals?
The Rise of the Unit
Affordability pressure is channelling demand into the unit market. This is a structural shift. Well-located apartments are no longer a secondary option but a primary strategic pathway for many clients.
KPMG Forecast: Unit price growth to outpace house price growth.
Key Talking Points for Client Meetings
The Real Market Driver
"The primary force driving property values today isn't short-term interest rate movements; it's a structural housing deficit that has been decades in the making and is projected by the government's own council to worsen over the next five years."
The Supply 'Escalator'
"While the government has an ambitious target to build 1.2 million homes, we're projected to build 79,000 fewer homes than we need just to cover new demand and replace demolished stock. This means the supply 'floor' under prices is effectively an escalator going up."
The Expert View
"This fundamental supply shortage is why expert forecasters at major firms like KPMG and Domain are predicting continued price growth through 2025 and 2026, even in a challenging economic climate."
The Best Strategy
"Given these long-term fundamentals, the most effective strategy isn't trying to time the market, but rather timing your personal finances. When your deposit is strong and your serviceability is clear, that becomes the right time to enter the market for the long term."